Aug 20, 2022; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson (18) looks on prior to the game against the San Francisco 49ers at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports
Can’t stop daydreaming about a Week 1 fantasy victory? Well, you’re just like us.
Each week at Bally Sports North, we’ll do our best to help you stack your lineup and compete toward your league’s prize – which, in some circles, means a pot of gold, or simply the evasion of punishment.
We’ve recycled our four fantasy categories from last season for two reasons: 1) We’re fond of the rhyming. 2) We think the terms below do a fine job of grouping together different types of options.
Rockers: The no-brainers locked in your lineup. Players probably picked in Round Nos. 1-5.
Mockers: Bench ‘em. They’re guys with upside who lose their appeal because of bad matchups.
Shockers: Aka the sleepers. The complete opposite of Rockers. You took a flier on them late in the draft, like their chances against a specific team and want to stun your opponent with a sneaky lineup change.
Talkers: Known by industry experts as boom or bust prospects. Sky-high ceiling. Dangerously low floor.
In addition to singling out players from both sides, we’ll include a weekly confidence clip – which should be self-explanatory – plus expanded analysis and if you’re lucky, fantasy wit you won’t find elsewhere.
With that refresher, here are our picks for Sunday’s afternoon tilt between the Vikings and Packers:
Vikings RB Dalvin Cook | Confidence Clip: 100%
The lowdown: In his career (seven games) against Green Bay, Cook has averaged 108.4 yards from scrimmage and accounted for nine touchdowns and three two-point conversions. “The Chef” has crossed the century mark rushing on only two occasions against the Packers – once in 2020 and once in 2019 – but both were monster performances with 163 yards and three touchdowns and 154 yards and another score. In last season’s opener, Cook garnered 26 touches (six receptions on seven targets). A comparable workload is a possibility, granted Minnesota’s new offense might take to the air early and often. We’re bullish on Cook because we think coach Kevin O’Connell will keep his superstars well fed.
Vikings QB Kirk Cousins | Confidence Clip: 100%
The lowdown: Depending on which Cousins shows up – confident or confused – Minnesota’s quarterback could get MVP love this season. He’s got the weapons, the accuracy and arm strength – don’t mistake past conservative play for an inability to needle the deep ball – and now he’s operating within the right system, a proven scheme that lends itself to gaudy numbers and lots of points. In eight games against Green Bay, Cousins has averaged 281.8 passing yards and thrown 18 touchdowns – tied for his third most vs. any opponent – to five interceptions. He should be locked in your lineup all year.
Vikings WR Justin Jefferson | Confidence Clip: 100%
The lowdown: We’ll keep this short and sweet. The Vikings’ top offensive player last season – one of the best in the NFL – Jefferson has immense talent and even bigger goals. The former 22nd overall draft pick has 2,000 receiving yards on his mind and believes he’s better than Triple Crown winner Cooper Kupp. His trademark “Griddy” touchdown dance has spread like wildfire … partly because he’s a TD machine (Jefferson ranks in the top 10 in touchdown receptions with 17 since his 2020 rookie campaign). Barring injury, Jefferson shouldn’t leave your lineup. He’s a top-3 WR and hopefully the X factor for your title run.
Packers RB Aaron Jones | Confidence Clip: 90%
The lowdown: Jones figures to be a must-start each week due to his involvement in the passing game. He’s seen 60+ targets and finished right around 50 catches each of the past three seasons. But wait, there’s more. Jones is in store for a career-high target share because of Green Bay’s underwhelming receiving corps. The slightly built former fifth-round pick also should maintain his role on the ground as a one-cut-and-go slashing running back who can beat defenders to the edge and hide behind blockers at the goal line. Even if teammate AJ Dillon emerges as the Pack’s choice to handle early-down work, Jones is going to get his touches – the more likely scenario is Dillon is leaned on late in games to wear down defenses. Jones has averaged 91.5 scrimmage yards vs. the Vikings and scored 10 times (seven games).
Packers RB AJ Dillon | Confidence Clip: 60%
The lowdown: Dillon carried 46 times for 242 yards as a rookie. He also tallied two catches for 21 yards with a long reception of 16. In 2021, Dillon led Green Bay with 803 rushing yards on 187 carries (4.3 Y/A) to pair with 34 grabs (37 targets) and 313 receiving yards, including a 50-yard catch and run. He increased his touchdown count from two to seven. In summary, Dillon is trending toward a huge Year 3. At this point you’re probably thinking to yourself excuse me, sir, you’re advising us to bench Dillon – yes, you’re not wrong. That’s our stance this week because we’re curious about Dillon’s and Jones’ usage.
Packers QB Aaron Rodgers | Confidence Clip: 75%
The lowdown: Call us crazy for suggesting you bench the four-time NFL MVP and long-reigning King of the North. Normally, we’d feel crazy, too, putting Rodgers in this blurb – we’re almost certain we tabbed him a Rocker each week last season (go ahead and strip us of our fantasy credentials if not). This year, however, is different. Not because Rodgers has regressed. Not because he’s a year older and a year closer to retirement or any less determined to win his second Super Bowl – even if the former are true. The reality is that it’s wise to bench Rodgers in Week 1 because none of us really know what to expect from Green Bay’s retooled offense. We didn’t see Rodgers in the preseason – only heard of his displeasure with Packers receivers in training camp. We don’t know what to make of the role Sammy Watkins will play, or if Randall Cobb has any juice left. And there seems to be a lot of pressure on rookies to perform. Maybe now, you’re beginning to understand our reservation on Rodgers out of the gate. That said, if Rodgers is your lone QB, roll the dice. He has a 56:7 touchdown to interception ratio vs. the Vikes.
Vikings TE Irv Smith Jr. | Confidence Clip: 40%
The lowdown: Smith Jr. can’t be labeled anything but a sleeper at this juncture. If the former second-round pick (No. 50 overall in 2019) can put injuries behind him, he has the receiving prowess and in-line ability as a blocker to keep defenses honest. Smith Jr. enters his first go-around as Minnesota’s undisputed leader at the tight end position with 66 career catches, 676 yards and seven touchdowns in 29 contests (14 starts). (Sidebar: It feels like forever ago Smith Jr. was named Kyle Rudolph’s successor.)
Packers WR Romeo Doubs | Confidence Clip: 30%
The lowdown: The darling of Packers training camp, Doubs approaches his NFL debut with more fanfare than fellow Green Bay rookie receiver Christian Watson. The latter, drafted almost 100 slots ahead of Doubs, has special traits, so expect to see him make an appearance or several in our weekly guide soon. But for now, Doubs is our pick of young Packers pass-catchers we envision capitalizing on early playing time. The Nevada product made a couple nice snares in the preseason, regularly got open vs. the Saints in joint practices and has an exciting blend of size, speed and catch radius that warrants our attention. We’re bold enough to include Doubs on this list of candidates but not brash enough to say start the man.
Vikings WR Adam Thielen | Confidence Clip: 75%
The lowdown: Thielen has a touchdown for nearly half of his games played vs. Green Bay (7 in 15), including one to pair with eight receptions and 82 yards in the late November meeting last season. That’s a positive, as is Thielen’s generally strong start – the 32-year-old route-running extraordinaire has posted 53.4 yards and 4.4 catches in 27 career September games, his second-best averages of any month on the calendar (Thielen has averaged 4.8 grabs and 64.1 yards per game in October). Unfortunately for Thielen owners, a decline soon seems almost inevitable. We’re not predicting Thielen gets phased out of the Vikings offense – he’s still a shrewd operator in the red zone (see his 38 red-zone targets since 2020) – but he’s already relegated to third fiddle behind Jefferson and Cook and will compete for touches with a healthy Smith Jr. and ascending third-year player K.J. Osborn. We’re conflicted on starting Thielen this week especially for two reasons: 1) Minnesota has lots of mouths to feed. 2) Conversely, Thielen has the easier matchup between the Vikings’ top two receivers – we suspect Jaire Alexander will mirror “JJettas.”
Packers WR Allen Lazard | Confidence Clip: 50%
The lowdown: Get ready to routinely see Lazard in this section … until he establishes himself as a true No. 1 wideout. Rodgers has talked up the former undrafted free agent all offseason – a savvy veteran tactic that could do wonders for Lazard’s confidence being he’s asked to fill the shoes of Davante Adams. Still, actions will speak way louder than words, and Lazard has a long way to go from scaring defenses. He enters his fifth NFL season with 109 catches on 159 targets (68.6% catch rate) for 1,448 yards and 14 scores – certainly WR1 worthy statistics … if they were produced over the course of a single season. Lazard becomes an even riskier start this week because of his availability. He missed practice last week after getting “stepped on” and wasn’t ready to return to the field as of Wednesday’s team activities. Oof.
The NFL gets under way this week and the Minnesota Vikings begin by playing rival Green Bay. It will be our first real instance – sorry, we aren’t counting the preseason – to see the offense installed by new head coach Kevin O’Connell as well as Ed Donatell’s base 3-4
The NFL has finally returned. With the Minnesota Vikings ready to open their season, we once again scoured through their media guide and came up with some different and interesting facts about a number of players. While your friends are dishing out Justin Jefferson’s receiving statistics, you can enlighten them
MINNEAPOLIS — When Kevin O'Connell takes the field with the Minnesota Vikings for his first game as a head coach, the 37-year-old will carry with him the blank slate that's one of the benefits of being a rookie in this high-pressure, much-coveted job. O'Connell needn't be concerned for now about
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