Analysis and discussion of elections and opinion polls in Australia
A burst of enthusiasm for the monarchy, steady support for federal Labor, and some other stuff.
Two contributions from Roy Morgan: its weekly report video tells us this week’s federal polling has Labor’s lead unchanged at 53.5-46.5, without offering any information on primary votes, and it has an SMS poll of 1012 respondents conducted on Sunday that found a 60-40 split in favour of retaining the monarchy over becoming a republic, albeit it might be faulted for having been conducted at an uncommonly opportune moment for monarchist sentiment.
The Australian also reported yesterday that SEC Newgate polling found 57% of Victorians were optimistic about the direction of the state; cost of living, health care and employment as the top priorities; “nearly half” trusting Daniel Andrews to lead the state through pandemic challenges compared with 16% for Matthew Guy; and 57% holding the view that the state was headed in the right direction, the highest of any state. Conversely, 53% of New South Wales respondents felt the state was heading in the wrong direction and only 35% believed the Perrottet government was doing a good job, the worst results for any state, although sample sizes in some cases would have been very small. The polling was conducted from August 31 to September 5 from a sample of 1502, 600 of whom were in Victoria.
Finally, the first batch of submissions – 212 of them – have been published from the Joint Standing Committe on Electoral Matters’ inquiry into the federal election. I haven’t had time to read any of them myself, but there are a good many notable names featured, though nothing yet from the parties.
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics. View all posts by William Bowe
“What is not clear to me is why racist texts were not led as part of the evidence in the Rolfe murder case. One presumes that if attitudes help inform or form actions, then attitudes are germane.”
I didn’t bring Cross with me on holidays, but I am pretty sure that would be excluded evidence.
Just imagine if ‘police wants to kill black kids’ was admissible evidence there aren’t too many police who’d get off the murder charge when they, you know gun down a black kid.
Boerwar says: Saturday, September 17, 2022 at 10:27 am Thank you, BK.
What is not clear to me is why racist texts were not led as part of the evidence in the Rolfe murder case. One presumes that if attitudes help inform or form actions, then attitudes are germane.
Because they are prejudicial – they don’t prove anything about this actual killing – just a general attitude. It would have been different if he had actually made comments directly about Walker.
TPOF, WWP If racism is prejudicial, why is character an allowable consideration? I’ve read about people giving evidence of the accused’s “good character”. Wouldn’t evidence of “poor character” fall under the same rubric?
An interesting discussion on RN this morning with constitutional law experts Cheryl Saunders and Greg Craven on the proposed changes to enshrine the Voice.
(Includes a comment from Craven about an article written by Janet Albrechtsen on the matter).
https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/saturdayextra/the-voice/101449732
Late Riser @ #53 Saturday, September 17th, 2022 – 10:54 am
TPOF, WWP If racism is prejudicial, why is character an allowable consideration? I’ve read about people giving evidence of the accused’s “good character”. Wouldn’t evidence of “poor character” fall under the same rubric?
From direct personal experience, and my daughter’s long experience as a National Parks Ranger, and now, senior NT public servant, Rolfe’s revealed attitudes would be common amongst a high proportion of white NT males, let alone the police. The chances of Rolfe’s jury being non-prejudiced would have been disappearing small.
Thank you yabba. I don’t know anything about the case. But thinking through the implications of your experience, I end up concluding that racism can be both assumed in general and be excused in particular in any action by a white policeman against a black man in the NT. It’s the water the fish swim in.
I have the numbers for a hypothetical 99 member UK Senate based on my new system 🙂
South East 14 South West 9 London 11 Eastern 9 East Midlands 7 West Midlands 9 North West 11 North East 4 Yorkshire & Humber 8
Each Senator representing about 480000 voters
Thinking about it, the numbers aren’t a million miles away from the European MPs by region before Brexit (around 80 seats at the last one) and since we switched to PR (the first few were FPTP) no party came close to a majority and the Greens and Lib Dems always won a decent amount of seats
We used the closed-list D’Hondt system (one X in a box) which I think slightly favours the larger parties at the expense of the small, there were a couple of times the Tory/UKIP block won a majority combined ** __________________________________________________________
So two ballot papers on voting day one for the Commons and one for the Senate
As it’s a single X on the Senate paper I may cancel my earlier idea of Supplementary Vote for the Commons paper as that requires 2 X’s and it would be unnecessary confusion to have two different systems on the same day
** I am slightly concerned that there is an in-built bias to the Tories with so many seats in the South, I may ponder some more _______________________________________________________
I will certainly be bending the ear of the current member for Wentworth & Dearne when next I see him 🙂
Steve777 says: Saturday, September 17, 2022 at 8:55 am Charles will probably have a “honeymoon” period like most PMs after they first take office. However, by this time next year if not sooner the gloss will have worn off. Charles will be part of the furniture and the usual Royal soap opera will have resumed, complete with its pettiness, silliness and scandals. It is unlikely that C3 will be as popular as QE2. More voters will be open to a Republic
***** I’m coming to the view that there is nothing from within Australia that will precipitate a republic except an event/circumstance/consequence that hasn’t even been contemplated yet. I agree with ,and posted before, roughly what Steve says. King Kotex will be the gift that keeps on giving…the entertainment will be in how this finally shifts public opinion.
“Victoria’s powerful police union claims the force is on the brink of a crisis, with officers routinely taking an hour to attend high-priority callouts such as armed robberies and home invasions” _____________________ Spot fires everywhere at the minute. That’s why I sleep with my 3 iron beside the bed each night.
Late Riser @ #56 Saturday, September 17th, 2022 – 11:18 am
Thank you yabba. I don’t know anything about the case. But thinking through the implications of your experience, I end up concluding that racism can be both assumed in general and be excused in particular in any action by a white policeman against a black man in the NT. It’s the water the fish swim in.
One thing is close to certain, and that is, if Rolfe had been attempting to arrest a white man rather than an indigenous one, then he wouldn’t have shot him four times, and he wouldn’t have killed him.
Taylormade @ #59 Saturday, September 17th, 2022 – 11:25 am
“Victoria’s powerful police union claims the force is on the brink of a crisis, with officers routinely taking an hour to attend high-priority callouts such as armed robberies and home invasions” _____________________ Spot fires everywhere at the minute. That’s why I sleep with my 3 iron beside the bed each night.
Typical TailoredMerde. “The number of criminal incidents recorded by Victoria Police in the year to 30 June 2022 was 341,367, down 9.6% from 377,487 incidents recorded in the same period last year.” https://www.crimestatistics.vic.gov.au
You are full of it. Continuously, always, relentlessly, just plain wRONg.
Scott says: Saturday, September 17, 2022 at 7:14 am
that SEC Newgate polling found 57% of Victorians were optimistic about the direction of the state; cost of living, health care and employment as the top priorities; “nearly half” trusting Daniel Andrews to lead the state through pandemic challenges compared with 16% for Matthew Guy; —————————- Lol Taylormade 中华人民共和国 Well played sir, well played.
Taylormade says: Saturday, September 17, 2022 at 11:25 am
“Victoria’s powerful police union claims the force is on the brink of a crisis, with officers routinely taking an hour to attend high-priority callouts such as armed robberies and home invasions” _____________________ Spot fires everywhere at the minute. That’s why I sleep with my 3 iron beside the bed each night. 中华人民共和国 LOL Taylormade
Late Riser says: Saturday, September 17, 2022 at 10:54 am TPOF, WWP If racism is prejudicial, why is character an allowable consideration? I’ve read about people giving evidence of the accused’s “good character”. Wouldn’t evidence of “poor character” fall under the same rubric? ___________________________________
It usually is not during the trial phase (as opposed to post-conviction sentencing, where it always considered). It can only be raised by the prosecution if the defence has raised character. Most defences therefore avoid ‘good character’ like the plague, to avoid triggering evidence of bad character. Especially if there have been prior convictions.
Bennelong Lurker @ #54 Saturday, September 17th, 2022 – 10:58 am
An interesting discussion on RN this morning with constitutional law experts Cheryl Saunders and Greg Craven on the proposed changes to enshrine the Voice.
(Includes a delightful comment from Craven about an article written by Janet Albrechtsen on the matter).
https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/saturdayextra/the-voice/101449732
Thank you. Discussion on The Voice starts at 30 minutes.
I do hope our C@t is ok. Thinking of you cobber.
Upnorth says: Saturday, September 17, 2022 at 11:35 am Taylormade says: Saturday, September 17, 2022 at 11:25 am
“Victoria’s powerful police union claims the force is on the brink of a crisis, with officers routinely taking an hour to attend high-priority callouts such as armed robberies and home invasions” _____________________ Spot fires everywhere at the minute. That’s why I sleep with my 3 iron beside the bed each night. 中华人民共和国 LOL Taylormade ——————————- yes LOL Taylormade
Overall crime down by around 10%. Robberies down. Burglaries down. Firearms offences down. Prohibited weapons offences down. Assaults down. Rate of victims of crime is the lowest it’s been since 2005.
If a law & order argument failed so miserably in 2018, it’s not going to work this year.
I posted this on the vic thread —- Kos Samaras
Our Mornington Poll. Can be downloaded via this link
This seat is not alone. We are seeing this level of volatility for both major parties. The government is going to lose seats, so to will the opposition. The next 8 weeks will determine how many
https://redbridgegroup.com.au/mornington-state-seat-poll/
Thank you TPOF. “It can only be raised by the prosecution if the defence has raised character.”
OK. That seems odd, but then I’m not legally trained. What it tells me is that intent and character are separate issues. When I couple that with yabba’s point (as inferred by me) I arrive at the idea that a general tendency or bias does may reflect on a person’s character, but it does not influence that person’s intent. That’s a fine line.
Character was not really an issue in the Rolfe trial as the NT DPP accepted that the first shot was fired lawfully.
Trying to prove a murderous intent or reckless indifference in the few seconds which preceded the subsequent shots seemed like a stretch to me.
I thought i had linked to the single segment only, not to whole program.
“Character was not really an issue in the Rolfe trial as the NT DPP accepted that the first shot was fired lawfully.
Trying to prove a murderous intent or reckless indifference in the few seconds which preceded the subsequent shots seemed like a stretch to me.”
Hope you are okay C@t
Bruce Lehrmann will call a lot of character evidence I expect
“ Whatever the future holds for export coal, the social legitimacy of transition in the Hunter will stand or fall on the region’s ability to create thousands of new jobs. The road to stable climate policy leads through regions like this. It almost shouldn’t need saying. But it resonates. It feels right. And it does bear repeating because the focus has to last. I think some governments have understood. For instance, in Qld, where I pay more attention, there has been a steady procession of renewable industry announcements in the regions, such as for Gladstone. Though bearing in mind how “announcements” have been given a bad name scepticism is there as well.”
I don’t know how popular it would be locally but building the east coast sub base in Newcastle would generate at least 5000 construction and 1000 well paid permanent jobs (SSN maintenance), plus the sub crews.
After the Azerbaijan and Armenian conflict now fighting breaks out between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. They’re all members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).
I suppose they realise that Russia is a paper tiger.
https://english.nv.ua/nation/fighting-breaks-out-between-kyrgyzstan-and-tajikistan-central-asia-news-50270517.html
Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *
Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment.
Repository of links to past election guides and poll trends for previous terms.
The publisher of this site, William Bowe, is conducting paid consultancy work ahead of the federal election for Climate 200, which is helping fund independent candidates who support policies to promote renewable energy and mitigate climate change.